The Kids Are Alright: Evaluating Goal Scoring By Age

Let's take a look at scoring in the English Premier League over the past two seasons. The goal is to define a peak scoring age in the league while also showing just how different the top three clubs are in their age philosophy.

The below chart shows scoring in the EPL since 2008 based on player age. The blue line is the actual goal totals while the purple line shows what we should expect when we regress the data. The reason I have done this is to show that the lack of goals from 26 year old players is simply a statistical oddity and not some unique trend.

As we can see, goal scoring peaks between 25 and 27 years old. Virtually no goals are scored once players hit 33 in the same way that very little goals are scored by players 20 and under. However, let's take a look at Arsenal over the past two seasons to see just how different they are from the rest of the league.

Here I have made a chart that shows Arsenal goals compared to the rest of the EPL. I used percentage of team goals here since the raw numbers don't really work for graphical purposes.

The above chart shows the dramatic differences in goal scoring by age between Arsenal and the rest of the league. Arsenal's goal scoring prowess starts at a much younger age than the other teams. Arsenal's goal scoring starts around age 19 before peaking around 22 while having virtually no contributions after age 29. For most teams in the Prem, the goalscoring gradually climbs from age 18 to 25, but Arsenal's goal scoring record shoots up drastically between ages 19 and 22.

Another interesting chart to examine is the differences in goal scoring age between Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea. We know that their philosophies differ often, but the below chart shows just how different the three clubs are when it comes to player age and experience over the last two seasons.

There are three unique philosophies at play here. First we see Arsenal, which has the smallest peak between the three clubs while also starting the earliest. Quite simply, Arsenal spreads the goals out over a greater number of players while having a much younger core. This should not come as a surprise to Arsenal supporters.

The next team to examine is Manchester United. United has two peaks, one at age 23 and 24 (Wayne Rooney's years) and what between 27-28 (Berbatov). Outside of these two peaks, there are virtually no other quality goal scorers. Manchester united has gotten no contributions in the goal column over the past two years from players aged 16-22 and 29-33.

Chelsea, the most recent Premier League champions, have one large peak that starts at age 29 and finishes at 31. This peak consists of Lampard, Drogba and Anelka. These three players have combined for over 70% of Chelsea's goals in the past two seasons.

Looking at these three teams gives us three unique views on player age and their contributions to the score sheet. Arsenal starts the youngest while having the most spread out talent, Manchester United is reliant on two main players in their mid-20's and Chelsea receives most of their contributions from players who are going into their thirties.